The downside is small and easily controlled. You have little to lose per book and, for completely unexpected reasons, any given book might take off. And for any reason, the movie may take off and become a hit (a positive Black Swan event). In movies / TV, you film & edit the project once, but can then scale it to a massive number of people over the internet. Movies, publishing, and venture capital are scalable because you can disconnect your input from your output. Three out of these four categories are scalable industries. Here are some areas that Taleb identifies where positive Black Swan events dominate: The goal is to operate in areas of positive Black Swans. You need to be able to tell the difference between these two categories, especially if you are creating or investing in businesses. Taleb writes that there are two categories of human undertaking: ones where uncertainty is beneficial (positive Black Swans) and ones where uncertainty is harmful (negative Black Swans). Identify places where unpredictability is very beneficial.
Taleb gives us some ideas about how to expose ourselves to positive Black Swan events. Exposing Yourself To Positive Black Swans They are areas filled with asymmetric opportunities - ones where the upside is greater than the downside. To create wealth, you want to make bets in areas dominated by positive Black Swan events. We’ll get into examples of these shortly. Positive Black Swans are just the opposite - those unpredictable, highly impactful events where the upside of the event is unlimited while the downside is capped. A negative Black Swan is one where the downside of the event is unbounded while the upside is capped. There are two kinds of Black Swan events - positive and negative.
The event is unpredictable (to the observer).Īfter the event has occurred, people will say that it was explainable and predictable. According to Taleb, all Black Swan events have these three things in common:
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